๐Ÿ’ฐNuggets: Why Buffett Thinks Net Income is "Worse Than Useless."


Hey Reader,
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Did you know? Despite being one of the most successful investors in the world, Warren Buffett does not keep a computer on his desk. He prefers to read and analyze information the old-fashioned way.

In today's issue:

  • Why Warren Buffett thinks net income can be less than useful
  • What we can learn from superinvestors
  • The differences between ROIC and WACC and why it's important
  • How long can stocks underperform?

Sponsored by: FNRPโ€‹

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Grocery-Anchored Commercial Properties

โ€‹First National Realty Partners offers accredited investors unique opportunities to invest in grocery-anchored commercial real estate.

  • These are properties that have a supermarket or grocery store as their primary tenant.
  • Grocery stores serve as the main draw (or "anchor") for shoppers, attracting consistent foot traffic to the property.
  • Grocery-anchored tenants are generally considered more stable and lower-risk investments within the retail real estate sector because grocery stores tend to perform well even when times are bad (after all, groceries are a basic necessity).

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โ€‹

NUGGETS

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My Favorite Finds

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Despite market stagnation from 1965-1982, superinvestors like Schloss and Tweedy Browne thrived with value investing, ignoring macro fears. Success came from stock-picking, not market timing, proving long-term strategy over short-term panic.

Breaking down all of the components of a DCF, the building blocks of valuing any company.

Howard Mark's latest memo, The Folly of Certainty warns against certainty in predictions, emphasizing intellectual humility. It highlights unpredictability in politics, economics, and investing, urging open-mindedness and caution to avoid overconfidence and errors in forecasting.

โ€‹Three reasons to watch out for net income or earnings. Warren Buffett warned that net income can be "a worse than useless number." Brian Feroldi does a wonderful job of breaking down why.

How long can stocks underperform? A lot longer than we would like.

Lyn Alden offers up a "7 Top Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade and Beyond." What do you think?


DEEP DIVE

ROIC > WACC
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Indicates value creation for companies. Let's learn more...
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๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—œ๐—– equals return on invested capital. ๐—ช๐—”๐—–๐—– equals weighted average cost of capital.
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Why is this important?

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First, a quick definition of each:
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๐—ฅ๐—ข๐—œ๐—– measures a company's ๐—ฒ๐—ณ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐˜† ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€.
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The higher the number, the more efficiently Microsoft uses its assets to generate revenue growth.
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We can calculate ROIC by:
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ROIC = NOPAT / Invested Capital
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๐—ก๐—ข๐—ฃ๐—”๐—ง (Net Operating Profit after Taxes) represents ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ (๐—˜๐—•๐—œ๐—ง) times the t๐—ฎ๐˜… ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜†. It also represents a connection to valuing a company using a free cash flow to the firm model.
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๐—œ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—น equals the ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€ a company uses to ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฒ, such as inventory, accounts receivable, PP&E (product, plants, and equipment), offset by liabilities such as accounts payable, deferred income, etc.
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We have a gazillion different ways to calculate Invested Capital, but we will use ๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฏ๐˜ + ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€' ๐—˜๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† - ๐—–๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต for this exercise.
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๐—ช๐—”๐—–๐—–
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๐—ช๐—”๐—–๐—– equals the cost of capital a company would spend to generate a return. Every investment has a cost and WACC helps measure those costs.
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Without getting into the gobbly goop of the formula, ๐—ช๐—”๐—–๐—– ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€ the relationship between the ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฒ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† and ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฏ๐˜ and their weights.
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Bottom line, WACC represents a way for investors to ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ and how much they ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ป to beat the hurdle.
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Why is this important?
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When a company has a ROIC > WACC it indicates the company is generating growth from its assets or value for shareholders.
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The longer a company can generate ROIC > WACC the more value it creates for shareholders. Think of companies like Visa, Mastercard, Microsoft, Google, among others.
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When looking for long-term investments consider the relationship between ROIC and WACC and try to determine how long the company's competitive advantage will last.

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EDUCATION

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Today's Bite

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Of Knowledge

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Dave Ahern
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