Hey Reader, In today's issue:
โ NUGGETSโ My Favorite Findsโ Despite market stagnation from 1965-1982, superinvestors like Schloss and Tweedy Browne thrived with value investing, ignoring macro fears. Success came from stock-picking, not market timing, proving long-term strategy over short-term panic. Breaking down all of the components of a DCF, the building blocks of valuing any company. Howard Mark's latest memo, The Folly of Certainty warns against certainty in predictions, emphasizing intellectual humility. It highlights unpredictability in politics, economics, and investing, urging open-mindedness and caution to avoid overconfidence and errors in forecasting. โThree reasons to watch out for net income or earnings. Warren Buffett warned that net income can be "a worse than useless number." Brian Feroldi does a wonderful job of breaking down why. How long can stocks underperform? A lot longer than we would like. Lyn Alden offers up a "7 Top Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade and Beyond." What do you think? DEEP DIVE ROIC > WACC
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First, a quick definition of each:
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๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ measures a company's ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ผ ๐ถ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐๐.
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The higher the number, the more efficiently Microsoft uses its assets to generate revenue growth.
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We can calculate ROIC by:
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ROIC = NOPAT / Invested Capital
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๐ก๐ข๐ฃ๐๐ง (Net Operating Profit after Taxes) represents ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ (๐๐๐๐ง) times the t๐ฎ๐
๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐. It also represents a connection to valuing a company using a free cash flow to the firm model.
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๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐น equals the ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฒ๐๐ a company uses to ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฒ, such as inventory, accounts receivable, PP&E (product, plants, and equipment), offset by liabilities such as accounts payable, deferred income, etc.
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We have a gazillion different ways to calculate Invested Capital, but we will use ๐๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ + ๐ฆ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐' ๐๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐ - ๐๐ฎ๐๐ต for this exercise.
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๐ช๐๐๐
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๐ช๐๐๐ equals the cost of capital a company would spend to generate a return. Every investment has a cost and WACC helps measure those costs.
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Without getting into the gobbly goop of the formula, ๐ช๐๐๐ ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ the relationship between the ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฒ๐พ๐๐ถ๐๐ and ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ and their weights.
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Bottom line, WACC represents a way for investors to ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ and how much they ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ผ ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ป to beat the hurdle.
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Why is this important?
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When a company has a ROIC > WACC it indicates the company is generating growth from its assets or value for shareholders.
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The longer a company can generate ROIC > WACC the more value it creates for shareholders. Think of companies like Visa, Mastercard, Microsoft, Google, among others.
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When looking for long-term investments consider the relationship between ROIC and WACC and try to determine how long the company's competitive advantage will last.
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Thanks,
Dave Ahern
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